Despite Similar Vote Share, BJP Bags Notably Lesser Seats Than 2019. Here’s Why

    Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: Despite the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) having managed to retain its vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it could only secure 243 seats. However, in 2019 BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, won 303 seats, with a vote share of almost 38 per cent. This time around the party has managed to secure 37.56 per cent vote in this election, as per Election Commission of India (ECI) data.

    BJP’s UP performance in 2019

    Uttar Pradesh has been a real game changer in the elections this time. The BJP made significant gains from this state in both the 2014 and 2019 elections, which had 80 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, the BJP won 71 seats, and its ally Apna Dal secured two. In 2019, the BJP won 62 seats while Apna Dal retained its two seats. This time BJP is only leading in 33 seats.

    Dramatic shift

    However, the scenario shifted dramatically in 2024. The Samajwadi Party (SP) is now leading with 34 seats, and the Congress, which only won Rae Bareli in 2019, is leading on eight seats. The Azad Samaj Party, likely to align with the INDIA bloc, is leading on one seat. The BJP tally this year has fallen to 34 seats, with its ally RLD ahead on two seats.

    BJP and its allies

    In Maharashtra, barring the NCP (Ajit) at six seats and Shiv Sena (Shinde) at one seat, other NDA partners have performed well. However, the BJP and its two allies have been cornered by voters who favoured Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray. Elsewhere, BJP allies such as JDU, TDP, and JSP have performed well, with JDS leading on three seats in Karnataka.

    Agniveer scheme

    High unemployment and inflation have taken a toll on BJP’s prospects. The Agniveer scheme has also worked against them, as reflected in the party’ spoor performance in Rajasthan and Haryana, two states with a high number of youth joining the defence forces and paramilitary services.

    In 2024, BJP has managed to lead in 69.2 per cent of the seats it won in the 2019 polls, while it is trailing in 30 per cent of the constituencies. In 2019, BJP achieved a decisive victory with 303 seats. By 2024, BJP maintained a strong presence, but experienced a decrease in seat count, indicating a more competitive political environment.

    Targeted campaigns

    Voter turnout increased noticeably in 2024, driven by targeted campaigns and social media engagement. According to official data from the ECI, the total voter count for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was 96.8 crores. This included around 1.8 crore first-time voters and 19.47 crore voters aged between 20 and 29.

    Urban areas exhibited more varied voting patterns in 2024, reflecting diverse issues and candidate profiles, while rural areas focused more on local leadership and agrarian issues.

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